Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain sharply reduced on May 31, 2026, with average daily transits likely falling within a range of zero to 10 vessels. The figure would reflect a severe slowdown across major commercial vessel categories, including tankers, dry bulk carriers, container ships, roll-on/roll-off vessels and general cargo ships.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping corridors, particularly for energy exports from the Gulf. A sustained decline to such low transit levels would signal significant disruption for regional trade flows and could intensify scrutiny from governments, insurers and shipping operators monitoring access through the waterway.

The final benchmark is expected to be based on IMF Portwatch data, which tracks reported ship arrivals through the strait using a seven-day moving average. Market participants and logistics planners are likely to watch the May 31 reading closely for indications of whether the slowdown is temporary or part of a broader disruption to Gulf maritime traffic.