World100%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Current prediction market odds for US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026. Track market probability, sentiment, key developments and forecast changes. Current probability: 100%.

Current Odds

100%

Current prediction market probability

Market volume: $14.4M

Why the Odds Changed

Washington and Tehran are expected to formalize an agreement ending military hostilities before the close of 2026.

Recent Developments

The United States and Iran are moving toward a permanent peace agreement that would formally end military hostilities between the two countries by the end of 2026, according to the terms under discussion by both governments. The anticipated accord would go beyond temporary ceasefire arrangements and establish a lasting framework for de-escalation, diplomatic engagement and security assurances.

Officials are expected to pursue either a written agreement signed or formally adopted by both sides, or a coordinated public confirmation from Washington and Tehran declaring that a definitive peace arrangement has been reached. Such a step would mark a major shift in relations after decades of confrontation, sanctions, proxy conflicts and periodic direct military tensions.

While the final language and implementation mechanisms remain subject to negotiation, diplomats and regional partners are preparing for an agreement that would clearly state that U.S.-Iran military hostilities have permanently ceased. The deal would likely become one of the most consequential diplomatic developments in the Middle East in recent years.

Market Sentiment

A 100% probability means traders currently view this outcome as highly likely. AlphaNews monitors this forecast as the market reacts to new information.

Key Risks

Prediction market probabilities can change quickly when new evidence, liquidity, deadlines or market rules shift. Treat this page as a live forecast, not a guarantee.

Related Forecasts