Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

Republicans are increasingly positioned to notch a significant victory in the 2026 midterm elections by winning at least one U.S. Senate or governor’s race in a pivotal battleground state that moved from Joe Biden in 2020 to Donald Trump in 2024. The states in focus include Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, all of which are expected to play central roles in determining the political balance heading into the final two years of the next presidential term.

The contests will offer an early test of whether Republican gains in the 2024 presidential map can translate into durable down-ballot strength. Senate and gubernatorial races in these states are likely to draw heavy national investment, with both parties viewing them as critical to control of state governments, federal policymaking and the broader 2028 political landscape.

Results from the November 2026 elections, including any required runoffs, will determine the final outcome. A Republican win in any one of the listed states would mark a notable consolidation of the party’s recent advances across the most competitive parts of the electoral map.