Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

Enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits are on track to expire at the end of 2025 without a federal extension, a development expected to raise health insurance costs for millions of Americans who buy coverage through ACA marketplaces. Lawmakers have faced mounting pressure from health care advocates and insurers to continue the expanded assistance, but no extension is expected to be signed into law before the deadline.

The lapse is likely to become a central issue in the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats preparing to campaign heavily on health care affordability and the impact of higher premiums on households. The party is increasingly positioned to win control of the House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections, potentially reshaping the legislative agenda in Washington.

If Democrats secure a House majority, they are expected to push for renewed health care subsidies and broader affordability measures, though any major legislation would still depend on the balance of power in the Senate and the White House. The combination of rising premium costs and a shift in House control could make ACA policy one of the first major fights of the next Congress.