Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Current prediction market odds for Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. Track market probability, sentiment, key developments and forecast changes. Current probability: 99%.
Current Odds
Current prediction market probability
Why the Odds Changed
Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro are expected to advance to the second round of Colombia’s 2026 presidential election.
Recent Developments
Colombia is heading toward a sharply polarized presidential runoff, with conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and left-wing senator Iván Cepeda Castro expected to emerge as the two leading candidates after the May 31 first-round vote.
If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid ballots, Colombians will return to the polls on June 21 for a decisive second round. A contest between de la Espriella and Cepeda would set up a stark ideological choice, with competing visions on security, economic policy, social reform and the legacy of President Gustavo Petro’s administration.
The official results will be certified by Colombia’s National Civil Registry, the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil. The anticipated runoff is likely to dominate the country’s political agenda in the weeks following the first round, as both campaigns seek to consolidate support from eliminated candidates and undecided voters.
Market Sentiment
A 99% probability means traders currently view this outcome as highly likely. AlphaNews monitors this forecast as the market reacts to new information.
Key Risks
Prediction market probabilities can change quickly when new evidence, liquidity, deadlines or market rules shift. Treat this page as a live forecast, not a guarantee.
