Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Current prediction market odds for Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record. Track market probability, sentiment, key developments and forecast changes. Current probability: 100%.
Current Odds
Current prediction market probability
Why the Odds Changed
Global temperature data is expected to show May 2026 as the second-hottest May ever recorded.
Recent Developments
May 2026 is on track to be recorded as the second-hottest May in the global climate record, according to expected updates to NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. The forthcoming data will compare global land and ocean temperatures for the month against all previous Mays in the agency’s long-running dataset.
The anticipated ranking would underscore the persistence of unusually high global temperatures after a period marked by repeated monthly heat records. Climate scientists closely watch NASA’s monthly index as a benchmark for assessing long-term warming trends and short-term temperature anomalies across the planet.
If confirmed in the June release, the result would place May 2026 near the top of the historical record, reinforcing concerns about the continued pace of global warming and its influence on extreme weather, ocean heat, and seasonal climate patterns worldwide.
Market Sentiment
A 100% probability means traders currently view this outcome as highly likely. AlphaNews monitors this forecast as the market reacts to new information.
Key Risks
Prediction market probabilities can change quickly when new evidence, liquidity, deadlines or market rules shift. Treat this page as a live forecast, not a guarantee.
