Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
Current prediction market odds for Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026. Track market probability, sentiment, key developments and forecast changes. Current probability: 100%.
Current Odds
Current prediction market probability
Why the Odds Changed
NASA’s upcoming global temperature data is expected to show May 2026 running about 1.10°C to 1.14°C above its mid-20th-century average.
Recent Developments
Global temperatures in May 2026 are expected to remain sharply elevated, with NASA’s forthcoming Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index likely to place the month between 1.10°C and 1.14°C above the agency’s 1951-1980 baseline.
The reading, due in June 2026, would continue a period of persistently high global temperature anomalies tracked by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Scientists use the index to assess long-term warming trends by combining land and ocean temperature measurements from around the world.
A May result in that range would reinforce the broader pattern of a warming climate, even as monthly figures can fluctuate due to ocean cycles, atmospheric variability and regional weather extremes.
Market Sentiment
A 100% probability means traders currently view this outcome as highly likely. AlphaNews monitors this forecast as the market reacts to new information.
Key Risks
Prediction market probabilities can change quickly when new evidence, liquidity, deadlines or market rules shift. Treat this page as a live forecast, not a guarantee.
