Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Current prediction market odds for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul). Track market probability, sentiment, key developments and forecast changes. Current probability: 86%.
Current Odds
Current prediction market probability
Why the Odds Changed
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its next three meetings as officials continue to weigh inflation progress against signs of a cooling economy.
Recent Developments
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its next three meetings, extending a pause that has defined the central bank’s recent approach to monetary policy. Policymakers are likely to keep the target federal funds rate steady at the April, June and July meetings as they wait for clearer evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed’s goal.
A continued hold would reflect a cautious stance from officials who have signaled they want more time to assess price pressures, labor market conditions and the broader economic outlook before making any further adjustments. Markets will watch each FOMC statement closely for clues on whether the Fed is preparing to keep rates elevated for longer or begin considering cuts later in the year.
Market Sentiment
A 86% probability means traders currently view this outcome as more likely than not. AlphaNews monitors this forecast as the market reacts to new information.
Key Risks
Prediction market probabilities can change quickly when new evidence, liquidity, deadlines or market rules shift. Treat this page as a live forecast, not a guarantee.
